China's importance extends beyond salmon. In the first half of 2026, it became Norway's second-largest seafood export market globally, with total seafood exports reaching NOK 7.4 billion, up 31 percent year-on-year. Since March, China has also been the top destination for Norwegian coldwater prawns, while haddock exports have risen 66 percent in volume and 121 percent in value.

"Looking ahead, global Atlantic salmon production is expected to grow moderately," Paul T Aandahl, senior seafood analyst at the Norwegian Seafood Council, said.

"According to Kontali, production is forecast to remain flat, with zero growth in the second half of 2026 and just 2 percent growth in 2027. Maintaining stable supply and strengthening collaboration across the value chain will be key to supporting the long-term development of the market."

Bjørgo agrees that the market is maturing after an unprecedented run.

"Going forward, I believe growth will be stable and steady, maybe between 10-20 percent annually, with much of it happening in smaller Chinese cities," he said.

He emphasized that tier-2 and tier-3 cities represent significant potential as modern retail channels and sales infrastructure continue developing in these areas.