Boeing bullish on China's air travel biz

US aircraft manufacturer Boeing Co said driven by the growing commercial air travel demand and booming e-commerce business in China, the country's fleet size is expected to more than double over the next two decades.

Despite the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on China's near-term growth, Boeing predicts that demand for air travel and airfreight will continue to grow through 2041, with the country's commercial fleet growing from around 3,900 aircraft to more than 9,600 through 2041, Boeing said on Thursday in Beijing.

By 2041, China will require 8,485 new airplanes valued at $1.5 trillion to serve passengers and trade. This represents more than one-fifth of global aircraft deliveries over the next two decades, as Chinese carriers look to replace older planes with more fuel-efficient models.

Notably, China's fleet size of air freighters is expected to more than quadruple to over 800 cargo planes through 2041 to meet the demand of the continued e-commerce growth and a strong industrial supply chain.

"We have full confidence that China's commercial aviation market will continue to prosper. China's economic fundamentals will continue to fuel the significant demand for both its passenger and cargo fleets," said Peter Gao, Boeing vice-president of commercial sales and marketing in China.

Through 2041, passenger air traffic in China is expected to grow at 4.9 percent annually, and 1,570 widebody airplanes and 6,370 single-aisle airplanes will be needed to support a growing network of international and domestic routes. Demand for commercial services to support the rapid and healthy growth of the fleet will be valued at $545 billion, Boeing forecasted.

COVID-19 has had a devastatingly negative impact on the global aviation industry, but the global air travel market has been gradually recovering. As of August, the global air passenger volume resumed to 74 percent of the level seen in 2019 when there was no pandemic, according to the International Air Transport Association.

As of August, domestic markets of different countries have seen their passenger traffic resume to 85 percent of the 2019 level on average. For international markets, the volume resumed at 67 percent of the level in 2019. All single-aisle aircraft resumed operations globally, and 84 percent of widebody aircraft resumed operations, IATA found.

China's domestic air travel market is steadily picking up with the pandemic brought under better control nationwide, despite sporadic outbreaks of local cases.

Boeing expects that by 2041, China's civil aviation industry will require more than 412,000 new aviation personnel, including 126,000 pilots, 124,000 technicians and 162,000 cabin crew.

Currently, China stands as the second-largest market for Boeing, and the largest for its European rival, Airbus.

Meanwhile, the C919, China's first self-developed single-aisle passenger jet, received its type certificate in late September in Beijing from the Civil Aviation Administration of China, indicating the first plane can be delivered to China Eastern Airlines by the end of the year. The C919's competitors include aircraft models such as the single-aisle Boeing B737 and the Airbus A320.

"China has a huge market for new airplanes. Boeing and Airbus now serve as the duopoly for the global trunk aircraft market. The upcoming delivery of the C919 means China will be able to provide more choices for global carriers," said Lin Zhijie, an aviation industry analyst and a columnist at Carnoc, one of the largest civil aviation websites.